Monday, April 23, 2012

Back to College

Went "back to college" with udacity.com, and took "Introduction to Computer Science" and "Building a robotic car."  Lasted two weeks out of seven due to the busy-ness of life, but it was a good experience.  My brain was firing on all cylinders.  Now, I am trying "Compilers" from coursera.org.  From their introduction, it is

implementation of programming language compilers, including

  1.  lexical analysis, 
  2. parsing, 
  3. syntax-directed translation, 
  4. abstract syntax trees, 
  5. types and type checking, 
  6. intermediate languages, 
  7. dataflow analysis, 
  8. program optimization, 
  9. code generation, and 
  10. runtime systems. 

"As a result, you will learn how a program written in a high-level language designed for humans is systematically translated into a program written in low-level assembly more suited to machines. Along the way we will also touch on how programming languages are designed, programming language semantics, and why there are so many different kinds of programming languages"


I think this will relate to database, logic, and how to express ideas in the most logical manner possible.

Friday, April 20, 2012

Stakeholder acceptance, equipment siteability in a Smart Grid

Siteability (acceptance)

Siteability is one aspect of stakeholder acceptance in the electric industry.  Others are consumer acceptance of demand response and pricing programs, utility acceptance of smart grid technology, and the investment challenges created (debt market), and so on.

Project management tools address increasing technology complexity

Technology readiness assessment is part of a suite of project management tools to deal with the increasing complexity of technology projects.  As projects get more complex, the tools to manage the complexity become more capable and sophisticated.  This is good and necessary as the low-hanging fruit has already been plucked.

Thursday, March 22, 2012

A beginning Reflection on the Self-attestation of Scripture

How do we know the Christian God?  The question of existence, tied to the Scriptures


Introduction

This problem is from epistemology,  how do we know?
The application is religious, how do we know the Bible is inerrant and infallible?

Chapter 1: The pervasiveness of scripture's self-attestation of truth and authority

A common argument from conservative presbyterians is that the Bible is self-attesting, that is it says that it is infallible, reliable.  This argument falls on its face because of the "liar's paradox", where if the liar says that he is telling the truth, then he is actually lying. The only way out is to have some sort of evidence. 

However, the argument can be brought back to its feet again via the following steps:
1) Realize that the self-attesting method uses the idea of "proof-texting", where a verse is picked to prove something about other verses, in this case the whole Bible. So Jesus says in many places that the scriptures (the Old Testament) is of God, therefore reliable.
2) In the traditional approach, Jesus's reliability and that of the Bible are linked.  If you believe in Jesus, you must believe in the Bible.  This is an argument in the form of a dilemma.
3) Instead of the traditional approach, say that the teaching of the reliability of scriptures is "pervasive" throughout scripture (thanks to James Scott, in OPC denominational magazine, New Horizons, 2012).  By realizing that all the writers of scripture, including Jesus (as a source, since he technically didn't write) all operate from the paradigm that the scriptures are reliable, and as a group, they depend on God for inspiration (as in "tell me what to say, oh God" or "how should I react to the idolatry of Israel", ...), the dilemma is made larger.  Either accept the whole context of the people of God, who (some of whom) are the source of the scriptures, via the inspiration of God, or doubt one piece, in which case the doubter does not identify with the people of God. 

This method is a sort of reductio ad absurdum.  By making the problem much worse, we make it better (dialectic, i.e. dialogue).  Now instead of a few verses being used to make sweeping generalizations about the rest of scripture, we actually have a worldview that without a paradigm shift is either correct in toto or "deeply" wrong.

This is the situation for most people, today, I think, appreciating the Biblical writers and their view, but conflicted, feeling like they are outside looking in.

Chapter 2: A true believer: VanTil

See Why I Believe in God, by Cornelius Van Til.

In the first paragraph, Van Til explains both
1) he was raised as a Christian ("God is Himself the environment by which my early life was directed and my later life made intelligible to myself.")
2) argument for or against God is possible because of God's existence.

Thus Van Til is a "true believer" in the sense of enthusiasm, and not being conflicted.  See the quote "Arguing about God's existence, I hold, is like arguing about air.  You may affirm that air exists, and I that it does not. But as we debate the point, we are both breathing air all the time." 

Manufacturing models and cost estimation

When considering planning a manufacturing operation, obvious questions are:
1) how much will it cost per widget, including capital, labor, energy costs and so on!
2) Where will the costs be lowest, with transportation costs to markets included?
3) When should I build
4) How large should the operation be? How many manufacturing lines, and so on.

Of course, this is an issue from operations research, where one tries to optimize profits (producer model in microeconomics), with the realization that there are risks ...
1) of market size not being realized
2) market share not captured by my company

so that I end up with unused capacity.  Of course, the converse risk is not capturing market share because I have too little capacity!

For an engineering perspective, see Go to "What Every Engineer Should Know about Manufacturing Cost Estimating" page
What Every Engineer Should Know about Manufac…

The equation for profit (please comment if I have this wrong ...!!!)  amortized over each item, given a manufacturing line that produces N widgets per year, sold at price p, in a plant that costs cap to build and is sold for cap $_f$ after depreciation with a factor depreciation factor each year, and has operating costs including labor, raw materials utilities, waste handling, etc., is

profit/N = $\gamma$ p - $\gamma^s $ cap * deprec factor - oper - p * $\Delta$ inventory

Note: The variable "s" is an exponent that reflects the scale of an operation.  So, expanding operations from N items per year (so $\gamma = 1$) to 2 N increases capital costs by $2^s$.  So, if s = 0.7, the doubling of manufacturing capacity increases capital costs by 62%.

So, just how big is the capital expenditure part for energy applications?  Daniel Yergin says "energy is a huge, capital-intensive business, and it takes a very long time for new technologies to scale" Yergin on energy scale.  For fossil fuel generators, for example, not only is the construction of a larger facility benefited by economics of scale, in operations, scale matters too, because there is a larger ratio of heat transfer surface inside the boiler than the surface of the enclosure, where energy is lost.


Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Bringing Domestic Manufacturing back; multiple dependencies

Reviving Domestic Manufacturing depends on  several factors
1) increased factory automation
2) cheap energy prices relative to competitor nations
3) supply chains and logistics advantages of keeping manufacturing close to the market

See John Mauldin's article (from GaveKal) which discusses factory automation, and what that could mean for the future of manufacturing in the US.  Domestic energy production is also supposed to be a big factor, because those automated manufacturing lines will be most competitive where the energy is cheapest.  Supply chains and logistics considerations will put the US in a competitive place once automation is in place, assuming energy prices can stay low.

Weeks when decades happen

For a gloomy view of the current manufacturing situation, with four ideas to turn it around, see
http://www.itif.org/publications/worse-great-depression-what-experts-are-missing-about-american-manufacturing-decline
from the Information Technology & Innovation Foundation 

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

The best technology does not always win

It is well known that A123 Systems is struggling, at least as evidenced by its stock price.  However, the factor(s) behind its difficulties are not so well known, and one could speculate about its technology, its financials, and the economics of its products.  A hint to the answer is discovered from one of a fanatical base of battery users that appreciate the technical advantages of A123 batteries.  They have superior cycle life (2000 cycles with 20% diminution of capacity), but have been replaced in DeWalt battery packs with inferior batteries. See the video for a demonstration of the superiority of A123 technology.

By process of elimination, it must be something about the economics of its products or the financials.  From the video, it is implied that its products are expensive, and that consumers may not be willing to pay more for this quality and safety.  Is it because they don't know about it?